Beto's Game

from Twitter

Rafael "Ted" Cruz picking on Robert "Beto" O'Rourke's nickname is only a dumb move if Republicans and Democrats play by the same rules. But they don't.

CNN Politics (@CNNPolitics) 7 Mar 2018DNC Chairman Tom Perez says Sen. Ted Cruz’s mocking of his challenger Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s name shows “Ted Cruz is desperate” http://cnn.it/2oZtX5E 

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Republicans, according to their own rules, may vote for anyone of any race. Republicans know from recent experience that a man who shares his father's name might go by a middle name or a nickname instead.

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Republicans are also likely to realize that Ted is a common nickname for Edward in both English and Spanish. There are no cognitive barriers for Republicans to vote for Ted Cruz.

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On the other hand, Democrats, according to their own rules, ought to support a minority candidate over a white one. Democrats also frown on cultural appropriation, such as an Irish-American taking on a Hispanic nickname.

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Obviously, in practice, Democrats vote party over all the other considerations they claim are important, but they must overcome a fair amount of cognitive dissonance to do so for Beto O'Rourke.

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So, at best, the Ted/Beto controversy is a wash for both sides. However, any reminder to Hispanics that Cruz is Hispanic while his opponent is not is more likely to work in Cruz's favor than against.

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I'm loathe to make predictions on how other people respond to opportunities, but I see a twofold opportunity here for Cruz. He has the chance to dispose of the "Lyin' Ted" moniker while asserting his ethnicity by switching to Rafael, probably not before the election, but soon.

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